Conversely, if this counter-offensive fails, then Russia, already prepared for this counter-offensive, has an even stronger foothold to annex Ukraine.
To be sure, the new round of war that began with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in late February last year has dashed hopes for a peaceful solution.
Not Willing to Back Down
Neither Ukraine nor Russia seem willing to back down from their respective positions.
As an independent and sovereign country, Ukraine is clearly not willing to let its territory go.
On the other hand, the Russian authorities do not want to lose face, both in the eyes of the world and in the eyes of their people.
Retreating from Ukraine would send a message of incompetence and weakness that could delegitimize them within Russia.
Retreating from Ukraine would also give a number of hotspots within Russia’s territory on the Trans Caucasian stretch, as well as countries bordering Russia including Kazakhstan, a strong reason to distance themselves from Russia.
For this reason, Russia will be as all-out with Ukraine, one of which is by often threatening to use nuclear weapons.
They have reason to be all-out, because militarily, politically and economically, Russia is already bleeding.
However, Ukraine, and its allies in the West who have actively isolated Vladimir Putin’s regime and are now actively supplying the most advanced war equipment to Ukraine, are just as battered as Russia.
The bottom line is that both sides have gone too far, because too much energy and money has already been expended.
Moreover, for the United States and NATO, Ukraine is a big gamble.
If Ukraine loses, the entire continent will see NATO as an incompetent and weak security platform.
With a land area of 603 square kilometers, Ukraine is the second largest country in Europe after Russia.
Ukraine also has a large population for a European country, with 43 million people. With this number, Ukraine ranks seventh behind Russia, Turkey, Germany, the UK, Italy and Spain.