JABAR EKSPRES – Money market observer Ariston Tjendra said the rupiah is likely to weaken on Friday, after the United States (US) economic data released last night, namely the Automatic Data Processing/ADP private version of labor data and service sector Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data showed an increase above market expectations.
The increase in PMI data can be seen from the actual figure of 53.9 which is greater than the consensus figure of 51.0 and the previous data of 50.3.
“The number (PMI data) above 50 means that activity is still growing,” he said when asked by ANTARA in Jakarta on Friday, quoted by Jabarekspres.com, (7/7).
According to him, the improving US economic data supports expectations of the US Central bank’s high interest rate policy, thus supporting the strengthening of the US dollar exchange rate against other currencies.
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Domestically, data on foreign exchange reserves (cadev) in June 2023 is considered to affect the rupiah. If it increases from before, he continued, it can help withstand rupiah depreciation.
“Cadev basically rises or falls from before. If it goes down, it means there is a high demand for US dollars in the market, so it has to use reserve funds, and this can give the perception that demand is higher than supply. As a result, the value of the US dollar strengthens compared to the rupiah, and vice versa,” said Ariston.
Tonight, there is US labor data to be released. If it has results that still show improvement in labor conditions, the US dollar is said to be able to strengthen again at the beginning of next week.
“US labor data for June later tonight market consensus, only experienced an increase of 225 thousand compared to the previous month 339 thousand workers. (However), if you look at the ADP private version of labor data last night, maybe the figures that came out could be higher than the market consensus,” he said.
